ELECTION SPECIAL: Venezuela

Today Venezuela has gone to the polls looking to vote for a new leader in a nation whose international profile has taken off in the last decade. Under the leadership of President Chavez, Venezuela has become a leading supporter of Latin American unity, a guiding figure for socialism (sparking a Latin American socialist resurgence) and a leading oil producer catapulting it to the core of international politics.

However Chavez and his socialist agenda are now under threat from the most united and strongest opposition in any election since his rule was established in 1999. Henrique Caprilles is Chavez’s opponent and is representing the Justice First party, part of a wider coalition of many of Venezuela’s smaller parties. Although the party is a centre-right party, Caprilles considers himself a centre-left politician and combines ideas of a thriving free market alongside strong support from the state. This has lead to a campaign in the form of popular, socially responsible right-wing politics, that has appealed to many in Venezuela who are keen to remove the shackles of state-run industry.

This is the seen as the closest election in recent Venezuelan history and the outcome could dramatically affect the way Venezuela interacts within the world.

The Candidates:

Hugo Chavez

• The Venezuelan leader since 1999, Chavez won a convincing election (he claimed 56% of the vote) to establish a new Venezuela, where the poorest of the country, who were disenchanted with the oligarchy style rule of previous leaders, would benefit from a new socialist future.
• He started a push to alleviate poverty in the country through his Plan Bolivar 2000, alongside this he established his own radio and tv shows, as well as his own newspaper in order to spread the socialist message further throughout the country.
• He also implemented referendums as a way to involve the public with politics.
• In 2000 he won his second election, increasing his share of the vote to 59%.
• Soon after this election Chavez’s foreign policy started to change, first tying himself more closely with Castro’s Cuba and following the invasion of Afghanistan, distancing himself from US politics, becoming a key critic of their foreign policy.
• Chavez also wanted to gain control over the oil industry and set about nationalizing the industry, ensuring that revenue and profit remained in Venezuela. He wanted to promote the idea of ‘energy sovereignty’, where a nation benefits from its own resources, rather than foreign business.
• In 2002, after mass protest, Chavez was forced out of office in a political coup d’etat, however only days after Chavez was reinstated to the Presidency following rallies in his favour.
• Further attempts were made to remove the President, but they failed and this made Chavez all the more radical.
• Chavez firmly established the idea of a Latin American Socialism in which nationalisation, social policies and the promotion a South American unity against the influence of the US and Europe, were all key aspects.
• Under this new banner of Latin American Socialism, Chavez established ALBA, a body supporting South American unity and economic development. He is also a key supporter of other leaders in the ‘New Left’ including Rafael Correa of Ecuador and Evo Morales of Bolivia.
• In recent years his health has been a problem for his continued leadership with the President having to undergo treatment for cancer.

Henrique Capriles

• In 1998 Capriles became the youngest member of the Venezuelan election ever elected (aged 26).
• In 2000 he became the Mayor of Baruta Municipality, an important, cultural and relatively affluent district of Caracas.
• During the 2002 coup the Cuban Embassy, which was located in Baruta, was attacked and following Chavez’s re-establishment as leader, Capriles was arrested for encouraging violence. He was later cleared of all charges.
• Moving on up in Venezuelan politics Capriles then became the Governor of Miranda province. The province is the second most populous and has the country’s highest HDI.
• He gave up the position as Governor in order to run as the opposition candidate, claiming a 64% share of the vote to confirm his nomination as the opposition.
• He has named former Brazilian leader, Lula da Silva, as his inspiration.
• During his campaign Capriles has faced fierce criticism from sections of the media that support Chavez, attacking his Jewish ancestry.

The Issues:

Social Spending & Business:

Both candidates are advocates for government funding for social projects, including healthcare, housing, education etc. Capriles argues that development in Venezuela should be achieved by encouraging wider economic development and private business, alongside  support and funding from central government that benefits the big social projects implemented under Chavez.

However Chavez wants to go further on his drive for a Bolivarian Revolution and socialism in the region by promoting even bigger social projects and nationally owned industrial schemes, both in urban and rural Venezuela. Although Chavez’s plans do indeed benefit a large section of society, who were largely marginalised before he took power, many fear a deepening socialism in the country that would further hamper the growth of businesses.

Oil & Business:

Venezuela is a world leader in oil production and so it only natural that this industry has taken a central role in the election. Chavez has maintained his national control of the oil industry and this move has had global implications. Through his Petrocaribe scheme nations like, Cuba and Nicaragua had benefited from low oil cost. As a vocal member of OPEC he has maintained the high price for global oil and he has supplied nations, like Syria (boycotted by others), with a supply of oil.

It is not clear what Capriles would do with the industry but considering his more general framework for business and development in the country, it is likely that the industry may be opened up to greater competition, ending the preferential treatment of certain states and allowing a wider global market greater access to Venezuela’s oil.

Foreign Relations

Whilst Chavez maintained relation with nations, such as Belarus and Iran, that saw him isolated from the Western political sphere, Capriles has publicly declared that he would reduce Venezuela’s connections to these sort of countries instead increasing the relations with other Latin American nations and Western nations, again in a style similar to Brazil.

Capriles has also stated that one of his main roles is to ensure greater connections between them Venezuelan government, the Colombian government and the rebel group FARC.

The Problems:

Violence

The campaign has already been marred by violence. Three Capriles supporters were shot dead last month as they took part in a rally in President Chavez’s home state of Barinas. This was only one incident among many that have occurred since the campaign started and in the last few weeks as attention around the election has intensified so has the violence.

Crime

Venezuela has one of the highest murder rates in the region, 48 per 100,000 inhabitants and under Chavez this has not reduced very much, however under Capriles the province of Miranda has seen its crime rate reduced and this has been a big factor for the voters in deciding who to vote for.

Ultimately socialism will remain a key factor in Venezuelan society. Both Chavez and Capriles want to maintain the social projects that have been established in the country however their approach to social projects is very different. Chavez’s encourages an aggressive form a socialism that has seen nationalisation of key industries and strict controls on business and society. Capriles has gone for a different approach that has seen him encourage development through business and progress through the free market and a more open society that sees greater global integration.

The Result

In the end the legacy of Chavez’s rule in Venezuela was too much for Capriles and early this morning Chavez was confirmed as the leader of Venezuela for a fourth term in office. Following the announcement, Chavez said that this election was a victory for socialism in Latin America and that this victory would allow him to deepen the Bolivarian Revolution that he had started. Capriles was gracious in defeat but argued that Chavez must recognise the significant proportion of the country who had voted against the leader (in the end Capriles won 44.97% of the vote compared to Chavez’s 54.42%).

It was the closest the opposition in Venezuela had got to toppling Chavez in an election and Capriles said that the seeds they had sown in this election would continue to grow. For Chavez the close race does seem to have impacted him, with a conciliatory note to his speech, claiming he wanted to be a better leader in Venezuela and represent more of the population. Whether this concession actually impacts on his politics is to be seen as Chavez will clearly see this election as further validation of the path he has taken Venezuela down.

Whatever the specifics of Chavez’s politics will be, what is clear is that the socialism of the country will power forward becoming more a part of the country and the infrastructure of South America as a whole. As Chavez cheered from the Miraflores palace:

“Viva Venezuela! Viva the fatherland! The battle was perfect and the victory was perfect,”

By Peter Banham

Cover Photo: Jorge Silva/Reuters

Challenge to the ‘New Left’ in Venezuela

Despite the growing trend in Latin American politics to favour pro-Latin socialism over pro-US capitalism, 2012 may see the biggest challenge to the socialist dream in the continent. Venezuela, the quasi leader of modern socialism in South America, is seeing a rise in anti-Chavez, moderate politics. Today Henrique Capriles officially registered as the opposition to Hugo Chavez, in a nation that has been the first amongst equals in Latin American left-wing politics.It marks the first time that the opposition has united to challenge Chavez and Capriles now represents a coalition of over 30 parties.

Chavez’ regime has been based on several key principles. Firstly he is staunchly anti-American and has sought to distance the continent from the influence of the USA and instead promote their own economic and political agendas. Secondly he was the first leader to really start implementing ideas of energy sovereignty, i.e. nationalising energy industries, in particular oil, so that Venezuelans themselves can benefit from the profits generated through government spending on healthcare and education. Thirdly he has sought to become a leader of the people, who in turn are heavily involved in the political process through referendum.

However the opposition have challenged this idealised, radical, socialist dream. Capriles has not condemned the whole process and has publicly praised Chavez for his progress in healthcare and education, but he has criticised the way that Venezuela seems to operate. Most crucially he believes that the strong anti-American and nationalisation are halting investment and growth in Venezuela. Instead he wants to open Venezuela up, allowing investors into the country again and allowing them to generate economic growth in the country, which he believes will benefit the people.

Many fear that this would open the nation up to global companies that only seek to exploit the region and gain profit, returning the country to the nation described in Eduardo Galleano’s book, The Open Veins of Latin America; one which only operates as a commodity supplying richer, more powerful nations in the West. But Capriles is conscience of this and thus repeats he desire to emulate the regime of President Lula da Silva in Brazil which saw a careful balance between promoting international business, whilst maintaining social welfare systems to benefit the people.

In this it is clear than Venezuela’s next President will still be left-wing and the ‘New Left’ in Latin America would remain intact. However with Capriles’ far more centralist outlook on politics the radical left of Latin America wold change dramatically if he was to be elected, pushing the leader of modern socialism out of power. If Capriles achieves power, then Venezuela may see itself catapulted back into the centre of international politics; a leader in the energy sector, which is growing greatly due to a more global and inclusive outlook.

However victory is by no means assured and the challenge may result in achieving little, as have many challenges prior. Chavez’s cult of personality and public appeal are still great and although Capriles has made himself very much a people’s candidate; someone who represents all of Venezuela, but he still has a long way to go to undo Chavez’s appeal.

The elections in October will be monumental. They will either signal the end to one of the most dramatic regimes in modern South America at the hands of a united opposition or it could falter in the face of continued support for the charismatic leader.

By Peter Banham