Are Mali’s Neighbours Really at Threat?

Much of the political discourse of recent months has been focused on North Africa and the idea that the extremist Islamic threat is now focused on the nations of North and West Africa. The recent conflict in Mali has highlighted to the world the rising power of Islamist groups, such as Ansar Dine and AQIM (Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb), in the region and the governments of the West have been increasingly concerned that this could open a new front in the fight against religious extremism.

What politicians have most worries about, is that the threat in Mali could spread around the region. The simply answer is yes, the threat is real and their is a possibility of conflict spreading. Already we have seen one of the worst terror attacks in neighbouring Algeria, when terrorists linked to al-Qaeda took hostage over 800 people at a remote gas facility. But the issue is more complex and the incidents in Algeria should not be indicative of a downward spiral into regional conflict.

(Above: Map of Mali and its neighbours)

Many nations surrounding Mali have a similar ethno-religious make up; with large Muslim populations and a mixture of African, Arabic and other ethnic groups, including Berbers and the Tuareg. This therefore provides the same problems that brought troubles to Mali. It has therefore been suggested that Mali’s neighbours, including Mauritania and Niger, could, because of their ethnic mix, suffer similar problems to those in Mali.

The Tuareg groups in Niger have already threatened the stability in the North of Niger (during the Second Tuareg Rebellion in 2008), which is part of the, notoriously difficult to control, Sahara desert. Like in Mali the threat posed by this break away ethnic group could allow the Islamists into the nation and a similar standoff between the government forces and rebels could take place. Likewise in Mauritania there have been tensions between the Arabic/North African and African ethnic communities and any instability in this relationship could allow the Islamists a route into the country.

Again similarly to Mali both nations have undergone coups, leadership challenges, protests, allegations of corruption and rigged elections and the intervention of the military to take control. This therefore paints a picture of a political atmosphere that is delicate and easily troubled. Thus they can be seen as clear targets for Islamic extremists looking to gain power.

However although the threat is clearly there, the Islamists have not taken steps towards destabilising these nations. Both nations, as previously stated, have undergone coups, attempted coups and have fought off rebellion from the far corners of the state. But both have now undergone recent elections, that according to the international community, were fair and legal. Mahamadou Issoufou of Niger and Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz of Mauritania have both been accepted by the international community as legitimate leaders allowing the political development of the nation to continue. Therefore one could argue that the political conditions that may attract Islamic insurgents are not currently present in these regimes. In addition with the West looking ever more intensely at the progress the region makes in the fight against Islamic extremism it is unlikely that these nations could slip into danger without nations, such as Britain and France noticing and intervening to contain the threat.

There are also some surprisingly calming influences in the region, that will attempt to limit the effects of Islamic extremism. Nigeria has long dealt with the threat of Islamic insurgency and with one of the largest economies and armies in West Africa they will be looked to, to provide some local stability and defence against the chaos Islamist groups could cause. Likewise nations such as Algeria and Morocco, that have both weathered the Arab Uprisings and Islamic insurgency, will be seen as leading figures in the push for regional stability.

With the West focusing ever more on the region and large regional neighbours seeking stability, it is clear that although there is a real threat to Mali’s neighbours from the growing power of Islamist groups, it is a threat that is likely to be headed off before other nations reach the same point as Mali.

By Peter Banham